Robert M. Cutler on Energy and Eurasia

First published in Focus [Center for Post-Soviet Studies] 3, no. 11 (November 1996), pp. 1–2.

With the dismantlement of the inherited Soviet nuclear arsenal now under way, it is the apparent lack of well defined long-term goals (apart from "stability") that largely account for Washington's inability to clarify the nature of its engagement in Central Asia, leading it to deal with immediate issues (such as the Tajikistan situation) on a piecemeal basis. There are, however, at least two key areas of central Asian concern (not counting the burgeoning drug trade or the Tajikistan civil war) that directly engage "vital" U.S. interests. These areas are nuclear nonproliferation and energy security.

Invited Speech to the Plenary Session "Caspian Sea Resources", Monaco Summit on Energy (Crans Montana Forum in Monaco sponsored by UNIDO). [Material from this speech was incorporated into the 1999 Global Governance article, "Cooperative Energy Security in the Caspian Region: A New Paradigm for Sustainable Development?"

First published in Central Asia - Caucasus Analyst, vol. 2, no. 4 (16 February 2000): 3-4. Copyright © Robert M. Cutler.

SUMMARY: President Islam Karimov's reelection in Uzbekistan has been followed by his statement that a program of economic liberalization and privatization will now be introduced in the country. Currency controls on the Uzbek som and its less than full convertibility, have been the greatest roadblocks to the overall development of the Central Asian trading block, called the Central Asian Union, that includes Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan. If barriers including bilateral trade tariffs can be overcome, the Central Asian Union holds the greatest potential to reanimate regional trade throughout the Central Asian region.

First published in Central Asia - Caucasus Analyst, vol. 2, no. 8 (12 April 2000): 7-8. Copyright © Robert M. Cutler.

SUMMARY: Secretary of State Madeleine Albright arrives April 14 in Kazakhstan, on the first leg of a week-long tour of Central Asia that will also take her to Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan. The visit occurs against a backdrop of increasing Russian diplomatic activity in the region in the period since Vladimir Putin's appointment as Acting President by Boris Yeltsin and subsequent election in his own right. This coincidence opens speculation about United States-Russian relations in Central Asia and the directions Central Asian countries themselves will choose to chart their futures.

First published in Foreign Policy in Focus, January 2001, pp. 1-2. Copyright © Robert M. Cutler.

A dangerous blind spot in the incoming administration's view of Russian affairs is its inadequate understanding of the significance of the newly independent states (NIS). The unanticipated consequences of such policy blindness are exemplified by developments in the 1990s in Belarus, formerly called Byelorussia--a country sandwiched between Russia and Poland--sharing a border with Ukraine to the south and with Lithuania and Latvia to the northwest.

First published in Foreign Policy in Focus, 4 October 2001, pp. 1-2. Copyright © Robert M. Cutler.

In its new war on terrorism, Washington is quickly moving to put its "strategic partnership" with Uzbekistan to work. It has already turned to Uzbekistan's President Islam Karimov, who has spent the past decade cracking down so hard in his own country that he has driven the possibility of loyal Islamic dissent out of the political arena, and is now targeted by the Taliban-backed Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU), with which there have been military clashes over the past two years.

First published in Central Asia -­ Caucasus Analyst vol. 6, no. 20 (6 October 2004): 5-­6. Copyright © Robert M. Cutler.

On September 19, Kazakhstan held the first round of elections for a new Majilis (lower parliamentary body). Second-round run-offs are being held on October 3, but the first round already established the contours of the complete results. In addition to parties formed around the persons of President Nursultan Nazarbaev (Otan) or his daughter Dariga Nazarbaeva (Asar), the technocratic Democratic Choice of Kazakhstan (DCK) and Ak Zhol, which emerged from it, were among those running candidates. The conduct of the elections was better than in other Central Asian states, but exit polls were diverged markedly from the official results, which give Otan a majority in the chamber. Important structural impediments to de-authorization and democratization remain, but they are not insurmountable. However, the longer reform is delayed, the more endemic they will become.

Excerpt from Voice of America report by Peter Fedynsky and Victor Morales, "Slow Progress on Reforms in Kazakhstan" (29 September 2006):

Robert Cutler with the Institute of European and Russian Studies at Carleton University in Ottawa, Canada, "The thing to understand about Kazakhstan is that there is political pluralism. But it is extremely restricted to a relatively not very numerous political elite. There have been opposition movements within this political elite, trying to liberalize things for the simple purpose of economic rationality. And the political conflict is really amongst this political elite. The mere fact that someone you know [as a fellow political elite] can be found murdered creates a little uncertainty and it makes people uneasy. [Opposition leader and former Information Minister Altynbek Sarsenbaev was murdered in February 2006.] There's a sense that something has got to change. But as is often the case, things are not going to change much so long as the autocrat[, Nursultan Nazarbayev,] is still in place."