Robert M. Cutler on Energy and Eurasia http://www.robertcutler.org/blog/  ]]> en Copyright 2008 Wed, 12 Dec 2007 14:34:33 -0500 http://www.sixapart.com/movabletype/ http://blogs.law.harvard.edu/tech/rss Kazakhstan's Foreign Investment Law Changes Again A little over a month ago, Kazakhstan’s President Nursultan Nazarbaev signed amendments passed several weeks previously by the Majilis (parliament) to the law “On the Subsurface and Subsurface Use” that would allow the government to amend or annul natural-resource contracts if these are judged to threaten the country’s national security. This dispute indicates the changing nature of Kazakhstan’s energy sector. http://www.robertcutler.org/blog/2007/12/kazakhstans_foreign_investment.html http://www.robertcutler.org/blog/2007/12/kazakhstans_foreign_investment.html Central Asia Energy/Policy Wed, 12 Dec 2007 14:34:33 -0500 Interview on Iraqi Kurdistan and the Situation in Iraq iraq kurds alawi hamas hezbollah -->English original of the text in press, in Kurdish, in the Erbil news-weekly Gulan Question: What is your point of view on Iraq's near-term future? Will U.S. policy fail? And if so, will Iraq be divided? Answer: The U.S. policy succeeded in removing Saddam Hussein, which was very important to the Kurds in Iraq. But further U.S. policy will fail if it seeks to destroy the secular and socially progressive aspects of the Iraqi culture, which include health care delivery, high literacy rates, education for girls as well as boys, etc.]]> http://www.robertcutler.org/blog/2007/04/interview_on_iraqi_kurdistan_a.html http://www.robertcutler.org/blog/2007/04/interview_on_iraqi_kurdistan_a.html Conflict/Security Ethnic/Religious Southwest Asia Turkey United States Alawi Barzani EU Fazilla Hamas Hezbollah Hussein (Saddam) Iran Iraq Jordan Kurds Maliki Saudi Arabia Syria Sun, 08 Apr 2007 19:19:33 -0500 A New Chance for the Trans-Caspian Gas Pipeline? Asia Time OnLine, 28 February 2007. Copyright © Robert M. Cutler. A significant indicator of Turkmenistan's future diplomatic and economic course is whether new President Gurbanguly Berdymuhammedov will undertake a rapprochement with Azerbaijan. ]]> http://www.robertcutler.org/blog/2007/02/a_new_chance_for_the_transcasp.html http://www.robertcutler.org/blog/2007/02/a_new_chance_for_the_transcasp.html Caspian Sea (region) Central Asia China Conflict/Security Eastern Europe Energy/Policy Integration/Cooperation Russia South Caucasus Southwest Asia United States Aliev (Heydar) Aliev (Ilham) Ashgabat Azerbaijan Baku Berdymuhammedov Caspian Ceyhan Gazprom Georgia Iran Kazakhstan Kyapaz/Serdar Nabucco Niyazov Russia SCP Shah-Deniz TCGP Tbilisi Turkey Turkmenbashi Turkmenistan Ukraine Wed, 28 Feb 2007 15:58:15 -0500 Full-text policy article on EEC-CMEA relations (1987) Harmonizing EEC-CMEA Relations: Never the Twain Shall Meet?," International Affairs 63, no. 2 (Spring 1987): 259-70. This article reviews Soviet perspectives on the European Economic Community (as the European Union was then called) in the early 1970s and then covers subsequent developments between the two European blocs later in that decade and through the early and mid-1980s. This review culminates in an assessment, consecutively, of the legal, economic, and political aspects of EEC–CMEA relations as these stood in early 1987. The article then establishes four possibilities for future relations between the organizations and evaluates these possibilities. It concludes with an attempt to see into the more distant future. Key Eurocrats in Brussels aver that this analysis strongly influenced EEC policy towards East Central Europe in the late 1980s, while the Soviet empire in East Europe was dissolving but the USSR had not yet begun to disintegrate. It includes 23 explanatory and bibliographical notes incorporating sources and studies in English, French, Russian, and Polish.]]> http://www.robertcutler.org/blog/2007/02/fulltext_policy_article_on_eec.html http://www.robertcutler.org/blog/2007/02/fulltext_policy_article_on_eec.html Eastern Europe Integration/Cooperation NEW ON MAIN SITE Russia CMEA Comecon EEC EU Wed, 14 Feb 2007 04:19:40 -0500 Azerbaijan jump 61 percent to 22.3 million tons in 2006 as the BTC comes online, at least according to BP. Meanwhile a lecture by BP's Chief Scientist responsible for formulating long-term strategy is available on line, and a report of some American views about the relationship between oil and democracy in Azerbaijan (as well as Kazakhstan) is available from Voice of America.]]> http://www.robertcutler.org/blog/2006/11/azerbaijan.html http://www.robertcutler.org/blog/2006/11/azerbaijan.html Energy/Policy South Caucasus Mon, 06 Nov 2006 11:21:31 -0500 Slow Progress on Reforms in Kazakhstan Slow Progress on Reforms in Kazakhstan" (29 September 2006):
Robert Cutler with the Institute of European and Russian Studies at Carleton University in Ottawa, Canada, "The thing to understand about Kazakhstan is that there is political pluralism. But it is extremely restricted to a relatively not very numerous political elite. There have been opposition movements within this political elite, trying to liberalize things for the simple purpose of economic rationality. And the political conflict is really amongst this political elite. The mere fact that someone you know [as a fellow political elite] can be found murdered creates a little uncertainty and it makes people uneasy. [Opposition leader and former Information Minister Altynbek Sarsenbaev was murdered in February 2006.] There's a sense that something has got to change. But as is often the case, things are not going to change much so long as the autocrat[, Nursultan Nazarbayev,] is still in place."
]]> http://www.robertcutler.org/blog/2006/09/slow_progress_on_reforms_in_ka.html http://www.robertcutler.org/blog/2006/09/slow_progress_on_reforms_in_ka.html Central Asia Domestic/Reform Kazakhstan Nazarbaev Sarsenbaev Tue, 26 Sep 2006 22:27:52 -0500 Playing Oil Politics in the Caspian Sea Playing Oil Politics in the Caspian Sea" (26 June 2006):
Robert Cutler, a senior fellow at the Institute of European and Russian Studies at Carleton University in Ottawa, Canada, agrees that Russia’s political and economic strength is growing. He says it was clearly demonstrated by Russian President Vladimir Putin in his recent response to the European Union's call to sign on to a multilateral commerce treaty.
]]> http://www.robertcutler.org/blog/2006/06/playing_oil_politics_in_the_ca.html http://www.robertcutler.org/blog/2006/06/playing_oil_politics_in_the_ca.html Caspian Sea (region) Energy/Policy Russia Caspian Energy Charter Putin Russia Mon, 26 Jun 2006 23:59:56 -0500 Politics of Oil Dominate Shanghai Summit Politics of Oil Dominate Shanghai Summit" (16 June 2006):
Analysts say the United States has reason to watch closely for signs of anti-American sentiments at the SCO. Robert Cutler, a senior research fellow at Carleton University in Canada, says the underlying purpose of the organization is for Russia and China to assert their influence in Central Asia. He says this is especially true of China, with its bid to secure energy resources.
]]> http://www.robertcutler.org/blog/2006/06/politics_of_oil_dominate_shang.html http://www.robertcutler.org/blog/2006/06/politics_of_oil_dominate_shang.html Central Asia China Energy/Policy Integration/Cooperation Russia United States Afghanistan Bishkek Kazakhstan Kyrgyzstan Manas Russia SCO Tajikistan United States Uzbekistan Fri, 16 Jun 2006 07:07:15 -0500 Russia Seeks to Rebuild Reputation as Reliable Energy Supplier Russia Seeks to Rebuild Reputation as Reliable Energy Supplier" (4 April 2006):
Last January, Russia, unhappy with Kiev's shift to a western oriented foreign policy, threatened to quadruple gas prices for Ukraine and triggered supply disruption. Robert Cutler, an energy specialist at Carleton University in Ottawa, Canada says Moscow's action called into question its reputation as a reliable supplier. "The current presidential administration did something that no Soviet leadership ever did during the cold war. They cut off gas," he said.
]]> http://www.robertcutler.org/blog/2006/04/russia_seeks_to_rebuild_reputa.html http://www.robertcutler.org/blog/2006/04/russia_seeks_to_rebuild_reputa.html Eastern Europe Energy/Policy Russia Gazprom Russia Ukraine Thu, 06 Apr 2006 22:20:18 -0500 Delhi's Options beyond Iran When US President George W. Bush was in India this month, he caused a flurry of commentary, especially in the Indian media, by appearing to lift long-standing American objections to the construction of a natural gas pipeline from Iran through Pakistan to India. "Our beef with Iran is not the pipeline," he said in Islamabad. "Our beef with Iran is the fact that they want to develop a nuclear weapon ... We understand that you [Pakistan] need to get natural gas, and that is fine." http://www.robertcutler.org/blog/2006/03/delhis_options_beyond_iran.html http://www.robertcutler.org/blog/2006/03/delhis_options_beyond_iran.html Energy/Policy South Asia Southwest Asia United States Afghanistan Aiyar (Mani Shankar) Ambani Andhra Pradesh Balochistan Bangladesh Cairn Energy Clinton Gujarat IPI (pipeline) Iran Myanmar Niyazov Oman Orissa Pakistan Reliance Industries Shell (Royal Dutch) TAP (pipeline) Turkey Turkmenistan United States West Bengal Tue, 28 Mar 2006 07:51:36 -0500 Kazakhstan Holds Elections for a New Parliament Central Asia -­ Caucasus Analyst vol. 6, no. 20 (6 October 2004): 5-­6. Copyright © Robert M. Cutler. On September 19, Kazakhstan held the first round of elections for a new Majilis (lower parliamentary body). Second-round run-offs are being held on October 3, but the first round already established the contours of the complete results. In addition to parties formed around the persons of President Nursultan Nazarbaev (Otan) or his daughter Dariga Nazarbaeva (Asar), the technocratic Democratic Choice of Kazakhstan (DCK) and Ak Zhol, which emerged from it, were among those running candidates. The conduct of the elections was better than in other Central Asian states, but exit polls were diverged markedly from the official results, which give Otan a majority in the chamber. Important structural impediments to de-authorization and democratization remain, but they are not insurmountable. However, the longer reform is delayed, the more endemic they will become. ]]> http://www.robertcutler.org/blog/2004/10/kazakhstan_holds_elections_for.html http://www.robertcutler.org/blog/2004/10/kazakhstan_holds_elections_for.html Central Asia Domestic/Reform Abliazov Astana India Mexico Nazarbaev Nazarbaeva (Dariga) Sarsenbaev Zhakiyanov Wed, 06 Oct 2004 01:38:53 -0500 Karachaganak Gas and the Future of Kazakhstan's Pipeline System Central Asia - Caucasus Analyst, vol. 6, no. 18 (8 September 2004): 8-9. Copyright © Robert M. Cutler. SUMMARY: The supergiant Karachaganak energy field, onshore in northwestern Kazakhstan, sends gas for processing over the Russian border to a processing plant in Orenburg operated by Gazprom. Production is slated to increase. The joint operators of the Karachaganak gas venture, BG and ENI, together with the Government of Kazakhstan, are considering building a plant on-site in Karachaganak to process the new volumes. Gazprom argues against this and is trying to offer incentives to send the gas instead to an expanded Orenburg plant. The eventual decision, coming soon, will have significant implications for how Kazakhstan's national pipeline system develops in the future.]]> http://www.robertcutler.org/blog/2004/09/karachaganak_gas_and_the_futur.html http://www.robertcutler.org/blog/2004/09/karachaganak_gas_and_the_futur.html Central Asia Energy/Policy Russia BG CPC ENI Gazprom Karachaganak KazMunaiGaz Kazakhstan Lukoil Orenburg Texaco Turkmenistan Wed, 08 Sep 2004 19:17:35 -0500 Out With the US, In With the Turks Asia Times OnLine, 07 March 2003. Copyright © Robert M. Cutler. The Turkish Grand National Assembly, in failing to approve the economic assistance package to be provided to Turkey by the US in return for American troops using Turkish soil for an attack on Iraq, also failed to authorize Turkey's army to enter northern Iraq. The Turkish constitution requires a parliamentary vote to send the country's armed forces outside its own borders. With this not being approved, the dynamics of the impending war have changed. ]]> http://www.robertcutler.org/blog/2003/03/out_with_the_us_in_with_the_tu.html http://www.robertcutler.org/blog/2003/03/out_with_the_us_in_with_the_tu.html Conflict/Security Ethnic/Religious Southwest Asia United States Afghanistan Erdogan Iraq Khalilzad Kirkuk Kurds Saddam Turkey Wolfowitz Fri, 07 Mar 2003 00:08:49 -0500 The Turkish Parliament's Double-Fisted Knockout Asia Times OnLine, 05 March 2003. Copyright © Robert M. Cutler. Please see reprint info for information on rights. Press reports, especially in North America, suggested that a deal between Ankara and Washington was just a question of money, using the metaphor of the bazaar to explain Turkish negotiating behavior. In the end, this description was shown to be ill-conceived and inaccurate. More was at stake than just the amount of money. Turkish leaders consistently said so, but no one in Washington seemed to hear them. The American administration also appeared to assume that the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) in Ankara could make its parliamentary deputies fall into line as easily as the Republican Party in the US can whip its congressmen and senators into supporting administration policy. ]]> http://www.robertcutler.org/blog/2003/03/the_turkish_parliaments_double.html http://www.robertcutler.org/blog/2003/03/the_turkish_parliaments_double.html Conflict/Security Ethnic/Religious Southwest Asia United States AKP Arinc Baykal Bush CHP Ecevit Erdogan Gul Iraq Musharraf Pakistan Putin Turkey Wed, 05 Mar 2003 00:00:35 -0500 The Turkish Military and Northern Iraq Asia Times OnLine, 20 February 2003. Copyright © Robert M. Cutler. Press reports have indicated that what separates the United States and Turkey in their negotiations [over conditions for American access to Turkish territory and facilities for military action against Iraq in 2003] the size and nature of the economic package wanted by Ankara. This is partly true, but it is not the whole story, and not even necessarily the most important part of the story. Military aspects of any Turkish incursion into northern Iraq and political aspects of northern Iraq's future are, rather, the more significant sticking points. Before discussing the latter, it is nevertheless useful background to review how the level of the economic package has recently increased. ]]> http://www.robertcutler.org/blog/2003/02/the_turkish_military_and_north.html http://www.robertcutler.org/blog/2003/02/the_turkish_military_and_north.html Conflict/Security Ethnic/Religious Southwest Asia United States Bush Ceyhan Dohuk Iraq Irbil KADEK KDP Khalilzad Kirkuk Kurds Mosul NATO PKK Thu, 20 Feb 2003 15:03:10 -0500