Robert M. Cutler on Energy and Eurasia

First published in Foreign Policy in Focus, 4 October 2001, pp. 1-2. Copyright © Robert M. Cutler.

In its new war on terrorism, Washington is quickly moving to put its "strategic partnership" with Uzbekistan to work. It has already turned to Uzbekistan's President Islam Karimov, who has spent the past decade cracking down so hard in his own country that he has driven the possibility of loyal Islamic dissent out of the political arena, and is now targeted by the Taliban-backed Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU), with which there have been military clashes over the past two years.

First published in Foreign Policy in Focus, 15 October 2001. Copyright © Robert M. Cutler.

Earlier this month, a helicopter carrying members of the United Nations Observer Mission in Georgia (UNOMIG) was shot down after taking off from Sukhumi, capital of the secessionist region of Abkhazia. It crashed, killing all nine on board. At first glance, it might seem that some party to the secessionist conflict whether Georgian, Russian, or Abkhaz--was trying to take advantage of the world's attention being focused on Afghanistan, in order to pursue tactical, strategic, or political aims in Georgia. However, the situation is more complicated than that.

First published in Foreign Policy in Focus, 19 October 2001, pp. 1-2. Copyright © Robert M. Cutler.

The air strikes on Afghanistan put U.S. policy in Central Asia in a delicate position. On the one hand, Central Asian governments will be tempted to harden further their authoritarian domestic policies toward dissent and opposition, driving people further toward Islamic-based protest. If popular opinion in the region comes to identify the U.S. too directly with those policies, then the post-authoritarian transitions could see widespread Islamic militancy, tied to anti-Americanism, come to the fore.

First published in Foreign Policy in Focus, 28 October 2001, pp. 1-4.
Copyright © Robert M. Cutler.

[Summary of the history of the conflict from the 19th century, the role of the United States, proposed solutions and an evaluation of prospects for the conflict's settlement.]